United States Motorcycles is falling down. The start of 2025 was awful for the domestic market, showing a fast declining consumers demand. Year to date March sales have been 108.888 (-10.6%), the worst start in the last decade.
Economic Outlook
In this most likely economic scenario, individuals and businesses front-load some trade activity early in 2025 to avoid tariffs; as tariffs take effect, trade slows later this year and into next. We forecast real exports will grow by 0.7% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, while real imports will grow by 1.8% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026.
The inflationary effects of tariffs mean the Federal Reserve can only manage 75 basis points of cuts over the next 24 months. Real consumer spending grows by 2.9% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
Government spending cuts and layoffs continue over the next few years, which subtract value from overall growth. Overall, our modeling shows real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. GDP growth then averages 1.9% per year over the remaining three years of the forecast.
Motorcycles Industry Trend and Perspectives
The two-wheeler market in the United States is the 14th largest in the World and one of the more stable, with annual volume steady in the range of around half a million since over a decade.
Following the weak performance (-4.6%) reported last year, when all economic indicators hits the best in this century, the start of 2025 was awful for the domestic market, showing a fast declining consumers demand. Year to date March sales have been 108.888 (-10.6%), the worst start in the last decade.
Market Leaders and Performance
In the competitive arena, having finally scored a year-on-year growth, the leadership is again in the Honda hands, although sales are declining 15.5%.
In second place, for the first time ever, there is Kawasaki booming sales by 31.9%.
It seems that the victim of the new economic wave in the States is and will be the american icon, actually in third place, Harley-Davidson, which started losing a deep 26.0%
Behind Yamaha (-1.0%), KTM (-30.3%), Indian (+8.1%), Suzuki (-18.5%) and BMW (-15.4%).
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