Russian Invasion to Ukraine Effects on Global Motorcycle Industry

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Damon-Motorcycles
Damon-Motorcycles

Global Motorcycles industry in the period 2012- 2021 global market (including moped, scooter, underbones and all motorcycle types) reported a steady 1.5% C.A.G.R. Russian war to Ukraine reduces short term volumes, but increase 2-Wheeler industry mid-term expectations.

McD tracks new motorcycles registrations in over 80 different markets, representing the 98% of the global motorcycles industry (including categories like ATVs/RUV, Tuk-tuk and – of course – 2/3 wheelers). So, we report on REAL historical data and our forecast are based on facts and data. We do not sell “Market Research”, but REAL data in excel plus our Senior Partners consulting and expertise in the industry.

Global Motorcycles Industry Trend

Following a decade of growth, the Two Wheeler Global Market is ready to face new challenges.

In the period 2012- 2021 global market (including moped, scooter, underbones and all motorcycle types) reported a steady 1.5% C.A.G.R. However this number does not represent the huge revolution happens inside the industry.

While in the pre-covid era, the industry was declining in the North side of the earth, with young people living in North America, Europe, Japan, Korea was less interested in this device compared with the previous generations, apart the “need” to use scooter to avoid traffic jam in metropolitan areas with poor public transportation (in Italy, Spain, Mexico and others). In this area the market was steady declining. 

The Covid19 represented a huge change and the two wheelers have been discovered again as the best for individual mobility, even in those locations with high quality public transportations and the market started to grow up, in all segments, as you can see reading our articles in these countries.

2021-zero-srf
2021-zero-srf

In the South side of the earth, the industry is the most relevant for individual mobility and in many countries (India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines and others) 2-wheelers are preferred by far to the 4 wheelers. In this area, the vehicles sold are cheap with less technology, less accessories, less safety and lower emission standard. The price elasticity is very relevant and volumes covers 95% of total market.

Motorcycle industry in this area’s countries have a medium-term growing trend, which recently has been impacted by changes in rules and standard. So, China was shacked out by several changes in emission and EVs rules, India fell down over 10% after Stage 3 emission level introduction in 2018, ASEAN countries struggled in 2020 and 2021 due to covid impact of local production.

However, in the post covid era, the motorcycle industry is setting up to live a booming decade due to the global growing demand for individual mobility and for the electrification impact in the consumer demand.

Total industry landed at 58.6 million of sales in the 2021, which was still down from the record hit in 2018, but in 8.5% recovery from the 2020.

In the next years the market will accelerate, hitting the all time record in the 2023 and then in all of the following 5 years. If the electric scooter and motorcycle sold in 2021 were over 10 million for the first time, in 2028 this segment will boom at over 30 million, driving up the entire industry.

The impact of Russian invasion of Ukraine in the Motorcycles Industry

Before to see the solution of the current “crisis” it is not easy to fully determine the impact of this war on our industry. However, for sure the energy industry will be transformed. 

In the next months, the higher cost of fuel in Europe and America will hit the demand accelerating the shift to the electric vehicles. So, we have already reduced the first half 2022 volume perspectives in this area, while increasing the sales expected for electric vehicles.

In the emerging markets (India and ASEAN over all) the oil cost increase will hit the four-wheeler market, together with the electric vehicles slow replacement to those with traditional combustion, as the price gap from an ICE car to an EV car is not affordable for low income countries.

The effect to people demanding mobility will be to search for a more affordable device, and the 2-wheeler market will benefit further. So, while in the next months the war effect will hit the south-earth regions, and we are reducing sales expectations, forecast for the next years will be boosted up.

 

 

 

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