Global Motorcycles industry will lose 7 million sales in the 2020 due to the pandemic effects to the market. However, our research confirm the growing demand for individual mobility and the market will boom in the 2021-2025. Year to date October sales have been 45.7 million, down 15.7%.
Global Motorcycles Industry 2020 Trend
The first half 2020 shocked all the not-digital industries in the World including the motorcycles.
Data on global motorcycles sales – tracking 80 markets Worldwide – has been awful with global sales (including all categories of 2/3 wheelers and ATVs) at 21.9 million vehicles, down 29.7%, as combined effect of a Q1 11.5% lost and a Q2 40.2% fell.
The key reason for the fall was correlated with the lockdown periods involving the industries in almost all countries, blocking production, shipments and distribution. However, the consumers, while blocked at home in over 1 billion people simultaneously, did not stop dreaming to ride and as soon as the could, the purchase of a two wheeler vehicles was one of the priority.
Already in the mid of pandemy for West Europe and China, consumers have reported a new need for mobility, due to the research of keeping distance from others and use individual device, cleaned and not touched by others. Together with a partner agency, we conducted two researches in April 2020, on in China and one is France/Italy and both clearly stated the people wish to move as much alone as possible.
Two wheelers, like bicycles and scooter, moped, motorcycles have been targeted as the best to replace public transportations, even consider their affordability in compared with cars.
An additional strong output received by our research was the people “feeling” as regard to electric two wheeler. A feeling we summarized in “smart“. People is perceiving the electric movement easy, smart, respectful and the best choice for individual movements.
This qualitative research was immediately confirmed by the two-wheeler sales trend in all the countries after the covid 19 phase one. China rebound sales already in the second quarter, while Europe took an impressive recovery speed between June and October and India – where the pandemy control was most difficult, started a strong recovery in September.
In the ASEAN, the first covid 19 wave arrived late and was devastating for the industry – in Indonesia overall – and we have to wait for tracking positive reactions yet. Similar is the actual in Latin America, although Argentina and Brazil started to gain back volume in the most recent month, and in USA, where covid 19 has never been under control and the industry fluctuates in a negative mood.
In this variegated environment, the global industry reported a still negative third quarter, with sales down 4.4%, due to the ASEAN region 21.6% lost, while preliminary data for October anticipate the first positive year on year month since February, with sales up 10.3%.
Year to date October sales have been 45.7 million, down 15.7%.
Market Outlook 2020-2025
In the Beyond Covid19 project, we are revising on monthly basis and sharing with our Clients the 2020-2025 motorcycles market outlook.
Several beneficial trends, including the growth of electric vehicles (EVs), could accelerate as COVID-19 prompts consumers to consider new mobility options and as the governments take action to stimulate the local economy.
Sales of entry-level scooters and motorcycles are already seeing a strong bounce back, with leading 2W manufacturers reporting a fourfold increase in sales between started in in the third quarter.
Actually our projection for the full year 2020 is at 56.9 million sales, down over 7 millions from the 2019.
However, the post covid middle terms forecast for the industry improved and this lost will be recovered in the next years. We see market volume in the 2025 above the 70 million, with additional sales in the period 2020-2025 of 13 million units.
Beyond coronavirus: The road ahead the Motorcycles industry
Standing tight to our mission and supporting all our global clients, the McD Team created a task force to study in deep the short and medium terms effects of global Covid19 crisis into our loved motorcycles industry.
Top Managements have to phase crucial questions today, as the plants start to progressively re-open:
- What to produce?
- Which countries to supply?
- With which volumes?
- How to distribute the short available production?
- How to support the distribution network when short in cash?
- Will EVs segment boom or collapse?
- What about the 2021 Model Year? Is it still necessary?
- Will Stage 5 emission be really introduced in Europe by next January?
- What challenges are Motorcycles players likely to face in 2021 and later?
- When will demand return to 2019 levels?
- Will the pandemic permanently alter the industry’s structure and dynamics?
To help on finding the best answers, we are examining and explaining the motorcycles market trends, considering the disruptive impact of Covid-19, taking into account a wide range of factors and developing market projection for the period 2020-2025 based on the effects of three index developed by our Research Team, the Base Trend Index (pre-Covid19 outlook), the Disaster Covid-19 Index (impact of anti-covid19 actions) and the Recovery Route Index (economic impact on our sector).
The forecast cover the monthly data from next months and will be adjusted any month, as the actual data will be collected.
We have forecast at global/regional/country/segment/brand levels.