India. Motorcycles industry up 11% in September. Hero & Bajaj shine

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Indian Motorcycles Market posted a significant improvement both in August and September, although the country is far from the normality. Total industry sales in September have been 1.92 million, up 11.2% with year to date figures down 33.3%.

Data reported for India regards wholesales and not – as for almost all the other countries – registrations. The perimeter of data covered includes motorcycles, moped, scooter, both on ICE and electric engines. In addition data includes the commercial three wheeler, very popular in the country.

August Market Data

Following the positive signs shown in the previous months, the Indian two wheeler market posted a significant improvement both in August and September, although the country is far from the normality, with Covid 19 spread still growing. However, many states easing out of the lockdown and demand for personal mobility growing up, pushing up the two-wheeler industry.

However, compared with the industry recovery in China and in Europe, the market is speeding slow, and the recovery speed is not strong enough to recover the huge lost reported so far.

Total industry sales in September have been 1.92 million, up 11.2% reporting the second double-digit growth in a row. 

Year to date September total industry sales have been 9.9 million, losing a huge 33.3%.

The market recovery risks to be limited by the 10-15% price increase in products due to the shift to BS VI emission level, with several manufacturer struggling to sell out the still huge stock of level IV and V models at dealer stock, asking support to the government.

An emerging risk for the industry is tensions between India and China, which is a vital supplier for motorcycles components. Deteriorating relations, with deadly borders clash  the Himalayan region, have led to delays in Chinese shipments crossing through Indians ports, increasing pressure on Indian manufacturers to switch to local suppliers. Not easy to do in short and aiming to avoid further increase on production costs.

Looking at the top manufacturers performance in September within the two-wheeler segment, the market leader, Hero Motors, sold 715.718 motorcycles (+19.2%) reporting the fastest recovery among the top players. Honda, in second place lost terrain selling 500.887 units, +9.9%.

In third place TVS Motor with 241.761 (-0.4%) followed by Bajaj Auto with 241.700 (+25.2%).

Market Outlook 2020-2025

Although automotive players are naturally focused on the immediate crisis, we also wanted to look at the medium- and long-term implications of the pandemic. What challenges are automotive players likely to face in 2021 and later? When will demand return to 2019 levels? And will the pandemic permanently alter the industry’s structure and dynamics?

We are examining and explaining the automotive market trends, considering the disruptive impact of Covid-19, with the mission to help our clients, surrounded by tangible uncertainty, in making balanced and fair business decisions.

Taking into account a wide range of factors, we develop market projection for the period 2020-2025 based on the effects of three index developed by our Research Team, the Base Trend Index (pre-Covid19 outlook), the Disaster Covid-19 Index (impact of anti-covid19 actions) and the Recovery Route Index (economic impact on our sector).

In case of Indian market, September data was in line with our expectations unchanging our Outlook on the country. Consequently, the calendar year 2020 sales are projected at market at 14.7 million, down 23.2%.