Vietnam Motorcycles Market trend is worsening and August reported the deepest fall out of last 5 months (-15%) as the country is struggling to avoid covid 19 spread. In the first eight months 2020 sales declined 14% at 1.84 million and the next months outlook has been downgraded.
2020 Motorcycles Market Data & Outlook
Although the local government has proved high ability on controlling the effects of covid 19 within the country, the motorcycles industry is suffering as few others this year.
The year on year trend differs from the most of other markets, considering the fall reporte in the Q2 was moderate (-29.5%) with total new two wheeler sales in the first half at 1.35 million units (-14.8%).
In Q3, while other markets are recovering, Vietnam is suffering, with July sales down 7.5% at 254.004 followed by August down 15.1% at 237.492.
After the first eight months, 2020 sales have been 1.84 million, down 14.0%
Honda is the best-seller, with year to date July sales at 1.35 million sales, followed by Yamaha with 295.000, while the new local brand, VinFast, producing only electric vehicles jumps in third place with over 42.000 sales.
Market Outlook 2020-2025
In the Beyond Covid19 project, we are revising on monthly basis and sharing with our Clients the 2020-2025 motorcycles market outlook.
As far as Vietnamese industry, the July performance was below expectations and in general the actions in place to counteract the covid19 spread are reducing our confidence on the market recovery.
Consequently full year 2020 outlook has been moderately downgraded at 3.1 million units, down 9% from the previous year.
2021 outlook has been reduced as well and actually is at 3.2 million (+4%), not yet recovering the 2019 pre-covid level.
In no other economic and industrial sector Vietnam has achieved the relevance actually owned in the 2-Wheeler global industry.
Indeed, while the country is fast growing in several industries and gaining steps within the ASEAN region, in the motorcycles sector the market represents the 4th bigger market in the World, with over 3 million vehicles sold each year and manufacturer cluster involving Top Manufacturers, like the Japanese Honda, Suzuki and Yamaha, the Taiwanese SYM and the Italian Piaggio. They produce over 3 million units per year, mainly for the domestic market.
In the 2018 the market hit the best sales level in the last 8 years, while the all time record, hit in the 2011 at 4.4 million units stands untouchable.
In the 2018 the market scored the 4th increase a row, with 3.38 million sales (including both local producers and import) and was behind just to India, China and Indonesia, with a gap of near 1.4 million toward the first follower, The Philippines.
In Vietnam, motorbikes are the main means of transportation of big cities. Motorcycles are currently responsible for about 80% of travel needs in the city. Previously, two big cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, proposed a scheme to ban motorbikes from the inner city to reduce traffic congestion.
In August 2017, Hanoi City issued Decision No. 5953 / QD-UBND approving the scheme “Strengthening the management of road transport means to reduce traffic congestion and environmental pollution in Thanh Hoa. Hanoi city, the period of 2017 – 2020 vision 2030 “. According to the approved project, Hanoi may limit and proceed to stop operating motorcycles in the districts in 2030.
Following Hanoi, in August 2018, Ho Chi Minh City also issued the project “Strengthening public transport in combination with controlling motor vehicles in Ho Chi Minh City”. Under this project, Ho Chi Minh City can restrict motorbikes in some central districts and proceed to ban motorbikes by 2030.