United States Motorcycles Market ended the first half 2020 with 278.307 sales (including ATVS and scooter), down 15.4%. The main issue is represented by the market trajectory, considering the covid 19 in not under control and will not be under control with this government or until the arrival of an effective vaccine.
2020 & 2021 Motorcycles Market Data & Outlook
Following a series of declining years, the start of 2020 have been full of optimistic data, with the market moderately growing in the first two months, even with Harley-Davidson in a growing pah after almost a decade. Indeed total motorcycles sales Year to Date February were 111.635 up 3.5%.
Unfortunately the scenario changed rapidly in March when the Covid19 spread across the nation progressively blocking the demand. At the end of the month several dealers were shut down. In March sales fell down 37.9% ending the first quarter with 145.996 units, down 10.6%.
The US Government decision to not shutdown activities in all the country avoided a short term market fall, like experimented in China, Europe or India and the start of the second quarter reported contained losses, with April volumes down 36% and May down 21%.
June was expected to be moderately positive, but the short delivery from Milwaukee Harley-Davidson plant, caused a product shortage for several HD’s dealers with the result that the market was down 4.7%.
The first half 2020 ended with a total of 278.307 sales (including ATVS and scooter), down 15.4%.
The main issue is represented by the market trajectory, considering the covid 19 in not under control and will not be under control with this government or until the arrival of an effective vaccine.
As in case of European/Chinese market, demand for two wheels is pushed by by the need of a more individual mobility, but differently from these other countries, in US there is not a stability in the economy and no national plans are sustaining the growth of low emission two-wheels.
Consequently, the next month’s forecast is less positive than in Europe or China. Market could be moderately positive in July/August, thanks to the Harley-Davidson opportunity to deliver the back order, but the third quarter will not show a sharp positive trend, as done in Europe and China immediately after the Covid 19 phase 1 end.
In US, Covid 19 is still in phase 1, without a strategy to go over.
Market Outlook 2020-2025 improved from the previous month
In the Beyond Covid19 project, we are revising on monthly basis and sharing with our Clients the 2020-2025 motorcycles market outlook.
In case of USA the Outlook is steady and not particularly positive.
McD Research Team forecast for the entire 2020 is for 625.000 sales (including ATV and scooters), down 6.2%. The 2021 forecast is moderately positive, with sales around 650.000 units, marginally below the 2019 level.