World Motorcycles market lost 64% in April and is projected to lose 47% in May and 21% in the entire 2020. However, clinics conducted in China and Europe advice on huge new demand for individual mobility, perfectly satisfied by the two-wheelers and first sales data in countries already in the post-covid stage, confirm the industry fast recovery, with 2021 expected to exceed 2019 in many areas.
The post Covid19 new normality will be on two wheelers!
All the economic activities will remember the 2020 as the hardest year ever, since the end of the Second World War, with the deepest economic crisis since the 1929 Great Depression.
However, for most of the countries, this crisis will be even the one with the fastest recovery due to a combination of factors, although this risk to be valid for all countries, due to impressive mistakes done by few local leaders, too overbearing to listen to scientist and learn by experience.
Focusing on our industry, in the countries with a fast economic recovery post-covid, the two-wheeler will represent the ultimate goal for individual mobility, and the acceleration post-covid will be faster than after any other crisis before, projecting the market ahead to new record founding new customers which never drove a two-wheeler before.
We can affirm this not only on the base of clinics conducted in China , the first country experiencing the post-covid, and in Europe, but even on the base of actuals and interview we have conducted in this month with European dealers in Italy, France and Spain.
In the clinics people affirm to search more individual device for mobility, and the scooter is considered the best, in particular those easy-to-drive, while people already expert on riding motorcycles affirm to wish come back on two wheelers after years of travelling by car or with public transportations.
Re-opening after Covid19 in April, China is now assisting to a real boom on new vehicles, both cars and motorcycles, with Car sales in May up 14%, the best in 5 years and preliminary data on motorcycles data, up 18%.
In Europe, May sales in France have been down only 15% and in Italy 11%, although dealers reopened during the month. Since the 20th of May, daily sales in France and Italy are higher than in the correspondent period last year and now a limit to the sales is represented by the low level of dealer stock, after plants shutdown in Europe for over 1 month.
Of course, current data are awful with Global sales down 24.7% in the first quarter 2020, followed by April 65.7% lost with sales at 1.8 million from 5.3 in the 2019.
Preliminary data for May (not all countries has been yet collected by our team) project the month at 3.0 million sales, down 46.8%.
The full year 2020 is actually projected at 49.3 million, down 21.3% with significative question marks on India, the largest market still in shutdown with no improvement on Covi19 fight and with the risk to keep the shutdown in July.
Beyond coronavirus: The road ahead the Motorcycles industry
Standing tight to our mission and supporting all our global clients, the McD Team created a task force to study in deep the short and medium terms effects of global Covid19 crisis into our loved motorcycles industry.
Top Managements have to phase crucial questions today, as the plants start to progressively re-open:
- What to produce?
- Which countries to supply?
- With which volumes?
- How to distribute the short available production?
- How to support the distribution network when short in cash?
- Will EVs segment boom or collapse?
- What about the 2021 Model Year? Is it still necessary?
- Will Stage 5 emission be really introduced in Europe by next January?
- What challenges are Motorcycles players likely to face in 2021 and later?
- When will demand return to 2019 levels?
- Will the pandemic permanently alter the industry’s structure and dynamics?
To help on finding the best answers, we are examining and explaining the motorcycles market trends, considering the disruptive impact of Covid-19, taking into account a wide range of factors and developing market projection for the period 2020-2025 based on the effects of three index developed by our Research Team, the Base Trend Index (pre-Covid19 outlook), the Disaster Covid-19 Index (impact of anti-covid19 actions) and the Recovery Route Index (economic impact on our sector).
The forecast cover the monthly data from next months and will be adjusted any month, as the actual data will be collected.
We have forecast at global/regional/country/segment/brand levels.