Indian two-wheeler market was reported to zero sales in April, due to the shutdown of all plants and all dealers, started in the last week of March and still in place, with year to date figures down 54.1% from the previous year. As part of our “Beyond Covid19 Project” utilized to forecast markets trends from now to the 2025, to foresee the full year 2020 below 14 million units
Motorcycles Market Data & Outlook 2020 & 2021
The domestic sales of new motorcycles sales have been reported to zero in April 2020, due to the shutdown of all plants and all dealers, started in the last week of March and still in place.
The restrictions taken to minimize the Covid19 spread across the country arrived on top of an already negative trend.
Indeed, according to data released by the Minister of Transportations, following the 2019 14.4% lost, the 2020 started with a slow tone with sales declined 15.9% and 19.8% respectively in January and February. March sales at 905.257 (-39.9%) were already partially hit by the shutdown, ending the first quarter with 3.66 million sales, down 24.6%.
With the lost of 1.7 million sales in April and unchanged YTD from March, the current lost over the 2019 is 54.1%.
Although automotive players are naturally focused on the immediate crisis, we also wanted to look at the medium- and long-term implications of the pandemic. What challenges are automotive players likely to face in 2021 and later? When will demand return to 2019 levels? And will the pandemic permanently alter the industry’s structure and dynamics?
We are examining and explaining the automotive market trends, considering the disruptive impact of Covid-19, with the mission to help our clients, surrounded by tangible uncertainty, in making balanced and fair business decisions.
Taking into account a wide range of factors, we develop market projection for the period 2020-2025 based on the effects of three index developed by our Research Team, the Base Trend Index (pre-Covid19 outlook), the Disaster Covid-19 Index (impact of anti-covid19 actions) and the Recovery Route Index (economic impact on our sector).
For the short term, we foresee a calendar year 2020 market at 14.0 million, down 27.5%.
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Increased duties and new emission stage introduction hit the 2019 domestic market
Motorcycle sales in India skyrocketed over the past few years, making the country the biggest motorcycle market in the World overtaking China since the 2016 and achieving a record volume of 22.4 million units (including commercial three-wheeler) in the 2018.
During the 2012-2018 period over 124 million of new bikes have been sold in the country with annual increase of 8 million units, a too fast growth for a country with still poor urban and extra-urban infrastructures.
However, starting from the last quarter 2018 the market is is declining and all single month in the 2019 was reported year-on-year declining with final score for the entire year at 19.3 million units (including Rickshaw, electric scooters, local manufacturers and importers), down 14.4% from the previous year, losing 3.1 million sales.
Several factors causing the slowdown, including an increase in insurance premium in 2018 and the new BS-VI emission norms taking effect in April 2020. This led experts to suggest people were waiting for the discounts on BS-IV models and for more BS-VI-compliant models to land in the showrooms. However, the price of BS-VI model could be higher than the BS-IV.
Looking at the competitive arena, India’s four biggest motorcycle manufacturers posted lower sales numbers in 2019 compared with the previous year
The market leader, Hero, ended sold 6.78 million units in the 2019, losing 1.1 million from the previous year record. The arch-rival, Honda sold 4.9 million two-wheeler, losing 16.7% or 1 million units, while the third, TVS reported 2.82 million sales, down 8.9% after having closed the first half in positive territory.
In fourth place Bajaj Auto with 2.55 million sales, down 7.8%. In our Database the KTM models produced in India by Bajaj are not included in these figures, but reported separately under KTM brand (which improved 27%).
In fifth place, Suzuki gained two position establishing the new record with 707.468 sales, up a remarkable 12.5%. Behind, Royal Enfield with 693.000 sales (-18.0%) followed by Yamaha with 659.000 (-16.9%) and Piaggio with 189.362 (-9.8%).
Looking at premium brands, the leader is KTM (locally produced and distributed by Bajaj) with 57.768 sales, up 27%.
BMW keeps booming, after the July 2018 local plant opening and ranks as 11th with 4.600 units. Probably India will be within the top 10 countries this year for the German brand! Harley Davidson is struggling, losing 24.2% of sales.